The Flippening is Nigh, Crypto Price Targets
The standard disclaimers apply, this is wild speculation on my part, DYOR. I don’t care about multi month price targets in general because I’m either holding or trading on a smaller time frame. That said, I saw this tweet yesterday and thought I’d check out the charts to see what he’s seeing:
There are a few basic trading principles I’m going to use without fully explaining them:
- Markets are fractal, similar percentage moves in price and time are seen on all time scales.
- The trend is your friend. Momentum is a classic market inefficiency that is very real in crypto.
First we’ll look at BTC
What we can see from this chart is that we just bounced off massive support on the lower trend line at 30K. The crypto bull lives! We can identify 3 prices of interest for this terminal move of this bull run: 140K, 200K, and 600K. 140K comes from the percentage gain Jan-July 2019, 200K is the projection of the upper trend line in 2 quarters which is the time of the first upleg of the bull (started in Jan 2019). 600K comes from the percentage gain from March 2020-April 2021. Anything is possible, but I would say 200K is the most likely price of BTC near Jan 1, 2022.
Next let’s look at ETH/BTC
When we look at this chart we see ETH had a massive bull run from 2016 to 2018 composed of 2 stunning up legs of roughly equal percentage gain. We see that ETH has been in new bull market that started in 2020. By 2 methods we obtain roughly the same target price of .37. At this price ETH will be double the market cap of BTC. Applying the percentage gain of either previous up leg gives us that target price. We can also assume that the current consolidation is the halfway point of the total up leg which is often the case with this type of chart pattern. That also points to a target of .37. It’s plausible that ETH will be trading at double the market cap of BTC in the next 6–12 months. With the successful launch of EIP-1559 and the upcoming “merge” that turns ETH into a deflationary asset, the chart pattern lines up with a compelling fundamental case.
Finally we have ETH/USD
We see that despite a huge correction from $4380 to $1700 we never left the narrow trend channel defining the current bull market. The first upleg of this bull move from $86 to $4380 was a 50x gain. As insane as it might seem, it is not unlikely we will see another move of similar magnitude. That is certainly the extreme case which projects a high in summer of 2022 at $86,000. The other 2 price targets we can come up with would come from the internal subdivisions of the move so far. A terminal move similar to March 2020 — Sept 2020 would get ETH to $10,000. In the medium case, a similar gain from Sept 2020 — May 2021 would give us a price target of $24,000. The timing for this high is Jan 2022 — July 2022, likely later in that window for the higher targets. Regardless of the final price I don’t expect this move to be over until ETH tags the upper trend line some time in the first half of 2022.
That said, let’s revisit the disclaimers. No sane person trades by setting price targets and blindly holding until the target is hit, or worse, blindly following someone else’s price targets. I’m not married to these targets and I may revise my opinion each and every day for the rest of the year and certainly will not take the time to publish such revisions, no matter how far reality diverges from what I consider the highest probability outcomes today. The best thing a retail investor can do in crypto is buy a small position in a good project and hold for 5–10 years. Most retail investors will buy at tops and you’ll need all that time to get out of the hole. My personal portfolio is exactly that, the three best layer 1 projects in crypto:
- 80% ETH (The market leader in terms of ecosystem)
- 10% AVAX (The best tech, may win if ETH stumbles)
- 10% SOL (the 2nd best tech, may win if both ETH and AVAX stumble)
I don’t trade my core positions and you’re a fool if do.
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